Yasuyoshi Chiba\/AFP\/Getty Images\/File<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u201c(BRICS) is part and parcel of Beijing\u2019s effort to make sure it isn\u2019t hemmed in by the US allies,\u201d said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. <\/p>\n
But that pressure may have lessened with Trump in office, Chong added, referencing the US president\u2019s shake-up of relations even with key partners, and for Xi, BRICS may just not be \u201chis greatest priority\u201d as he focuses on steering China\u2019s domestic economy. Beijing may also have low expectations for major breakthroughs at this year\u2019s summit, he said. <\/p>\n
Xi is not the only head of state expected to be absent in Rio. <\/p>\n
The Chinese leader\u2019s closest ally in the group, Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin, will only attend via video link, for the same reason he also joined a 2023 BRICS gathering in South Africa remotely. Brazil, like South Africa, is a signatory to the International Criminal Court and so would be obligated to arrest Putin on a court charge alleging war crimes in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
The absence of two global heavy hitters leaves ample limelight for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will visit Brazil both for the summit and a state visit. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is also expected to attend. <\/p>\n
Some new club members have yet to announce their plans, though Indonesia\u2019s Prabowo Subianto is expected in Rio after Southeast Asia\u2019s largest economy officially joined BRICS earlier this year. BRICS partner countries, including some who aspire to join the group, will also send delegations. Uncertainty remains over whether Saudi Arabia has accepted an invitation to become a full member. <\/p>\n
The sting of Xi\u2019s absence for Brazil\u2019s President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva may be blunted by the fact that the Chinese leader visited Brazil in November for the G20 summit and a state visit, when he and Lula inked a raft of cooperation agreements. The Brazilian leader also visited China in May, after attending a military parade in Moscow alongside Xi. <\/p>\n
That recent diplomacy, low expectations for major breakthroughs at this year\u2019s summit, and a heightened focus on domestic issues all likely factored into Xi\u2019s decision to send Li, a trusted second-in-command, observers say. <\/p>\n
China is facing steep economic challenges in the face of trade frictions with the US \u2013 and its leaders are busy charting a course for the five years ahead of a key political conclave expected this year. <\/p>\n
In Rio, Li will likely be charged with advancing priorities like shoring up energy ties between Beijing and BRICS\u2019 major oil-exporting members, while pushing for the expanded use of China\u2019s offshore and digital currency for trade within the group, according to Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong, who added that Xi\u2019s absence shouldn\u2019t be interpreted as a snub to BRICS. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhether it be the Sino-Russian partnership or Beijing\u2019s desire to project its purported leadership of the Global South, there is much in BRICS+ that resonates with Xi\u2019s foreign policy worldview,\u201d said Wong, using a term for the extended group. <\/p>\n
Launched in 2009 as an economic coalition of Brazil, Russia, India and China before South Africa joined a year later, BRICS roughly positions itself as the Global South\u2019s answer to the Group of Seven (G7) major developed economies. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s taken on greater significance as countries have increasingly pushed for a \u201cmultipolar world\u201d where power is more distributed \u2013 and as Beijing and Moscow have looked to bolster their international clout alongside deepening tensions with the West. <\/p>\n
But BRICS\u2019 composition \u2013 a mix of countries with vastly different political and economic systems, and with occasional friction between each other \u2013 and its recent expansion have also drawn criticism as leaving the group too unwieldy to be effective. <\/p>\n
The disparate group\u2019s efforts to speak with one voice distinct from that of the West often become mired in opposing views. A statement last month expressed \u201cgrave concern\u201d over the military strikes against BRICS member Iran, but stopped short of specifically naming the US or Israel, the two countries that carried out the strikes. <\/p>\n
Nonetheless, the US will be watching how the countries talk about one issue that has typically united them: moving their trade and finance to national currencies \u2013 and away from the dollar. Such de-dollarization is particularly attractive to member countries such as Russia and Iran, which are heavily sanctioned by the US. <\/p>\n
Earlier this year, among the goals of Brazil\u2019s host term, Lula included \u201cincreasing payment options\u201d to reduce \u201cvulnerabilities and costs.\u201d Russia last year pushed for the development of a unique cross-border payments system, when it hosted the club. <\/p>\n
What\u2019s unlikely to be on the negotiating table, however, is the lofty goal of a \u201cBRICS currency\u201d \u2013 an idea suggested by Lula in 2023 that has drawn ire from Trump even as other BRICS leaders have not signaled it\u2019s a group priority. <\/p>\n
The US president in January threatened to place \u201c100% tariffs\u201d on \u201cseemingly hostile\u201d BRICS countries if they supported a BRICS currency, or backed another currency to replace \u201cthe mighty U.S. Dollar.\u201d <\/p>\n
As countries convene in Rio, observers will be tracking how strident their leaders are in promoting the use of national currencies at a meeting of a group where China is the leading member, but US global economic clout still looms large. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n
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