An empty base as a target, with many hours warning, and a limited number of missiles fired at some of the best air defense systems in the world. Iran\u2019s retaliation for the US\u2019s weekend strikes on three of its nuclear facilities can only have been designed to deescalate. <\/p>\n
The US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar had been evacuated days earlier, with satellite images showing the departure of planes and personnel widely publicised in the media. It is the most important US military airbase in the region, the home of Central Command. It even launched the drone that killed Iran\u2019s top military personality, General Qasem Soleimani, in 2020, Iranian state media said in the hours after \u201cOperation Glad Tidings of Victory.\u201d The Monday strike against Al-Udeid had close to zero chance of American casualties \u2013 and provided the perfect moment of quasi-absurd face-saving for Iran. <\/p>\n
The first hint of a possible strike came when the US Embassy in Doha, Qatar, issued an emergency \u201cshelter in place\u201d order for US citizens. As if to remove any doubt, Qatar closed its airspace about an hour prior to the launch of what appears to have been close to a dozen missiles by Iran. Adding to the favourable conditions of the launch for Iran\u2019s dwindling arsenal, Qatar is close enough to permit the use of shorter-range missiles, stocks of which have not been as depleted as the medium-range missiles used to hit Israel over the past week. <\/p>\n
To pour water on anything resembling a flame, Iran\u2019s National Security Council said moments after the attack the number of missiles fired had been \u201cas many as the number of bombs used in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.\u201d Packaging the barrage as the definition of a proportionate response, the Iranian statement went on to insist the attack posed \u201cno dangerous aspect to our friendly and brotherly country of Qatar and its noble people.\u201d <\/p>\n
Tehran\u2019s method of retaliation-without-fangs has been successfully tried and tested. After Soleimani was killed, Iran\u2019s retaliatory missile attack against the US\u2019s Al Asad airbase in Iraq was reportedly telegraphed to Baghdad beforehand, possibly helping reduce the level of US injury suffered to mostly concussions. Iran\u2019s response to Israel\u2019s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in the heart of Tehran heavily telegraphed in advance. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe knew they\u2019d retaliate. They had a similar response after Soleimani,\u201d a senior White House official said Monday night. <\/p>\n
A playbook appears to be forming. But it is one that compounds Iran\u2019s military weakness each time it is employed. In 2020, the Islamic Republic lost its pre-eminent military personality \u2013 an Iranian hardline hero. In 2024, it showed that valuable allies were not safe in central Tehran. This year, the regime has lost control of its own airspace to the point of previously unthinkable strikes on their prized nuclear facilities by both Israel and the US. <\/p>\n
This is stark testament to the differing powers on display. Iran has to feign its strength in a managed presentation of restrained and muted anger. The US and Israel get to break taboos daily, shattering Iran\u2019s long-held position as a regional power in under ten days, and perhaps ending its ambitions to be a nuclear power. <\/p>\n
There is now only one real red line left for the United States or Israel to cross, and that is to directly target Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But that may seem ill-advised, given the likelihood this octogenarian theocrat would be replaced by a younger hardliner who is keener to flex Iran\u2019s muscles of deterrence. Better to accept toothless retaliations amid Tehran\u2019s slow decline. <\/p>\n
Each expression of Iran\u2019s anger has confirmed its slow erosion of power. An angry fledging nuclear power would have accelerated its race to an atomic bomb. That may still happen. But it looks more likely that Iran is desperately hoping its performative lashing out can sate what remains of its hardliners, decimated by Israeli strikes. It may even hope to shuffle back to diplomacy, with talks to contain a nuclear program and ballistic missile stockpile likely severely depleted to shadows of what they were merely ten days ago. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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